Naira activity subdued post-Eid; Importer obligations weigh on Kenyan shilling

Naira activity subdued post-Eid With minimal activity after the two-day Eid holiday, the Naira appreciated slightly to 473 per dollar in the parallel market at the beginning of the week before slipping back to 474. A shortage of dollars persists given recent weeks of lower revenue from oil, Nigeria’s biggest foreign exchange earner. Demand has […]

CBN Under Pressure to Devalue Naira; Tanzania Gains Low-Middle Income Status

Assessing the economic damage How bad is the economic fallout from COVID for sub-Saharan Africa? The IMF gave its best estimate last week, updating a dismal forecast in April for a 1.6% contraction in the continent’s economy this year to a yet more dire projection of negative 3.2%. Even with the recent recovery in oil […]

ECO currency planning; Naira rates unification; Kenya negative outlook

ECO currency planning resumes after COVID lull Planning for the new West African ECO currency resumed from a lull since the COVID-19 outbreak, with member states working on terms of engagement. In its second ordinary meeting this year on Monday, the Central Bank serving the eight CFA franc member countries – the Monetary Policy Committee […]

Xi’s forgiveness spurs debt relief optimism; Rand in resistance; Flower power for shilling

Xi’s forgiveness spurs debt relief optimism Amidst weaker economic growth projections, Africa’s currencies look largely unscathed as funds from the World Bank and IMF continue to boost reserves while President Xi’s vow to cancel concessional Chinese loans due this year and rework some commercial debt has bolstered the prospect of a G20 debt relief package. […]

Rally halted in Africa FX; Kenya and Nigeria supported by reserves

Rally halted in African FX as global markets slide African currencies ended weeks of gains in tandem with declines across global markets on concern of a coronavirus second wave impeding recovery in the world’s major economies. Notable in recent weeks has been a relative advance for Kenya, which the IMF reported as overtaking Angola as […]

Africa FX recovery as business reopens; “Risk on” Rand strongest since March

Recovery from Kenya to South Africa as businesses reopen A cross-continental easing in restrictions on economic activity – in some cases spurred by protests, such as in Senegal – furthered the recovery in currencies last week from South Africa to Kenya. While a heavy economic toll continues, we see the reopening of businesses and markets, […]

NDFs show weaker Naira as released Nigerians hunt Dollars

NDFs show weaker Naira as released Nigerians hunt Dollars Five-year non-deliverable forwards are pointing to Naira rates at 570 per dollar, tumbling from 413 to the dollar, as Nigerian businesses released from lockdown face a shortage of dollars. Bureau de Changes saw supplies of dollars dwindle as an extended ban on flights reduced dollar inflows […]

Recovery for Rand, Shilling amid Ease of Lockdown

Nigerian spenders emerging from lockdown means pressure for Naira Last month we warned of false stability in the Naira as Nigerians on lockdown meant demand was artificially low for dollars, both for consumer spending and production imports. As we anticipated, the easing of lockdown measures last week resulted in a resumption of dollar demand, weakening […]